Fictions about roulette (part 2)
FICTION: Bankroll Management Helps You Win
Unless your roulette strategy changes the odds of you winning, bankroll management will only make you lose at a faster or slower rate. Specifically positive progression will make you lose faster, and negative progression makes your bankroll last longer (because your bets get smaller).
Why doesn’t bankroll management help? Because it just controls the amount you bet. The wheel doesn’t care what you are betting. Your bet size doesn’t influence it. Your bets are not changing the odds or payouts.
FICTION: You Only Need a Short-Term Winning Strategy
There are many strategies that aim to win perhaps +1 unit each day. It will hardly cover the cost of car parking. But still let’s use this as an example and say your goal was to win just +1 unit. It seems simple enough, right? Many players have claimed they have a holy grail that will win a set amount per day, but the strategy’s rules require you to leave after winning the target amount.
- If the strategy worked, wouldn’t playing more mean winning more?
- What if 10,000 players all used the same system? Would they all win +1 unit?
- What if 1 player used the same system 10,000 times?
A roulette strategy either wins in the long-term, or loses in the long-term. Whether you bet on just 1 spin, or 1,000 spins, the casino will have the same edge over you. That is unless you are able to change the odds of winning.
FICTION: Roulette has streaks you can use for advantage
Even with numbers from a random number generator, there will inevitably be times where the same number spins several times in a row. This is simple statistics, and such “freaky streaks” are bound to happen eventually. The odds of 0 spinning three times in a row are 1 in 50653. But what are the odds of 0,0 then 2 spinning? . . . Also 1 in 50653. So ask yourself, why would you bet 0 after it had spun twice consecutively?
The same concept applies to any other bet. For example, you may wait for the first dozen to spin three times consecutively, then bet on the second and third dozens. But the odds of each dozens spinning next haven’t changed at all.
FICTION: A strategy that “lasts” for 20,000 spins is better than most systems
A strategy will either lose or win in the long term. If you use a negative progression where you decrease bet size after losses, you can make your bankroll last longer. But the end result will still be a loss.
Alternatively, you could wait for rare “triggers” that mean you skip many spins before betting. Then you apply an aggressive betting progression and may get lucky with a big win. The result of this is a lot of spins will occur, but you rarely bet. So you can last many thousands of spins without blowing your bankroll. This doesn’t make the system good. It just makes a losing strategy more boring to use. A strategy like this on a bankroll trend chart will show a lot of dramatic up and down bankroll spikes.
If you have a good roulette system tester, try creating a system with random bets. You’ll find that even occasionally it will be profitable testing over 20,000 spins. It doesn’t mean the system “works”. It just means you got lucky. Try repeating the test a few times. Certainly there would be many players around using totally ineffective strategies, who have still profited purely from luck. Most players will never play 10,000 spins in their life, and it is still easily possible to profit after 10,000 spins with a losing system from luck. Reality may catch up with them eventually, or they may end their roulette career with a profit despite an ineffective strategy.
FICTION: Waiting for a trigger to bet increases your chances of winning
You will either have a positive or negative edge, and waiting for something to happen like a sequence of numbers will not improve your chances of winning. The exception is if the “trigger” is directly related to a sequence of spins caused by physical variables of the wheel and ball. For example, if the trigger was “bet on whatever number that won most in 10,000 spins”, then this is bias analysis. But the “triggers” that have no effect are like “wait for 5 reds in a row then bet black”.
FICTION: Winning after you reach your target profit for the day helps ensure daily profits
It makes no difference if you play 1 spin a day for 100 days, or 100 spins in 1 day. It’s still 100 spins. The odds of you winning or losing are the same in either case.
FICTION: Skipping spins you bet on can help you profit in the long term
If you tested a system over 1,000 spins, your “trigger” may require you to bet on only 200 spins (20% of spins). If you profited, it doesn’t mean you’ve won over 1,000 spins. It means you’ve won over just 200 spins.